Hey everyone! It's James at Yoreevo, New York's number one commission rebate brokerage, with our January 2026 Manhattan Market Update. Happy New Year to everyone!

If you remember last month, we had a very strong December, and we were wondering how much of that was going to continue into January. And the short answer is: some of it. We had contracts signed flat versus last year and up 6% versus normalized levels of demand. So, our favorite chart here, versus normalized levels of demand, is not nearly as strong as the 22–23% that we saw last month, but still very solid, bouncing around that flat-to-up-25% range that we've been seeing for seven, eight, or nine months now. So, demand remains solid, is a good way to summarize it. Then inventory—no change here whatsoever. We are down 6% on the number of listings on the market. So, that solid demand is in spite of less supply. Buyers have fewer things to choose from, and that's really what's supporting prices. Our chart versus normalized levels of inventory is not quite as tight as it was last month, but still very much tight. Then mortgage rates. I never like to comment on where mortgage rates are going because, if you watch this, you know that nobody knows where mortgage rates are going. However, I do think there's a little bit of bias to the upside, namely because the spread between the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates tightened a bit. We saw the 10-year Treasury go up 105 basis points in the middle of the month, and mortgage rates didn't move. To look at that another way, the 10-year is at levels that we saw back in September, but the 30-year fixed is about a quarter point lower. So, if there was any normalization in that spread, that would put upward pressure on mortgage rates. But regardless, we're bouncing around in the low sixes. Whether it's 6.1%, 6.2%, or 6.25%, it is constructive for demand out there, and we're seeing buyers not even blinking when it comes to getting a mortgage rate around there. Then this chart—we just threw it in here because we saw it, and we thought it was interesting. It shows the percentage of mortgages outstanding that are above 6% versus below 3%. For the first time, the above-6% mortgages outnumber the below-3% mortgages. This is what we've been talking about off and on for a while now. As more people pay off their sub-3% mortgages, or pay off more of those mortgages, they're going to be more likely to move. They're going to be more likely to put their houses or apartments on the market, and you're more likely to see inventory increase. So, if there was one looming issue for this market, it's that as the number of 3% mortgages outstanding decreases, you're eventually going to see that supply unlock, which could put pressure on prices if it were to ever hit the market—or when it hits the market, of course. But anyway, you can see these trends are pretty well defined. They're not going to change. We're going to see more 6% mortgages and fewer 3% mortgages. We are about a month away from the spring selling season really kicking off. So, if you're looking to buy, now is a good time to get your ducks in a row. You can reach out to us at info@yoreevo.com, and we'd be happy to help you get ready for the spring selling season and, of course, get you a commission rebate on any property in New York City. So, thank you for watching, and we will see you next month. Bye.