Supporting Slides
Hey everyone, it's James at Yoreevo, New York's #1 commission rebate brokerage with our July Manhattan Market update. And we're seeing a continuation of the trends that we have been watching and forecasting for the last couple of months. First, on demand we're down 34% year-over-year. That's the fastest pace of declines this year. You can see that in the widening gap between the pink and blue lines here - blue being last year. But remember we're comparing to last year's record levels of demand. We're back down to levels we're seeing in 2017 to 2019 so the market's still okay. It's just not super hot like it was earlier this year and all of last year. When we look at this by price point it's basically the same story down that 30-35% depending on which price point you're looking at. Same thing on inventory, continuation on the trend that we've been watching for the last couple of months where the year-over-year declines have been narrowing. We're down 2% this last month. Let's just call it flat. Just quick aside if these absolute levels of demand look higher that's because they are. This is the total amount of inventory that's on the market versus the actively updated supply that we only have before. That data doesn't exist anymore so we're using the total levels of inventory. Same story here on price point on either side of flat. Let's just call it flat across the board. Summer is a slow time so I wouldn't tell you too much has changed on pricing but what we can look at in a concrete fashion is mortgage rates. We are off the highs there. There's definitely a boost of pricing, a boosted demand. We're flirting with 6% mortgage rates a month or two ago. We're now back to the low to mid 5%'s so that's definitely helpful and welcome. But what I wanted to take a quick second to dive into - and this is a little complicated - but is the Fed, the relationship between the Fed funds rate and mortgage rates, because I'm sure you've been inundated with articles and people telling you that you have to buy now because the Fed's going to increase interest rates. And I just can't stress this enough I go through this with buyers all the time. The Fed rate does not impact mortgage rates. The Fed can raise rates and mortgage rates can go down. And in fact if we look at this last raise that's exactly what happened. But just to take a little bit of a step back you can see since the Fed started aggressively tightening. They have increased the Fed funds rate 2% while mortgage rates have gone up about .6%. And zeroing in on this last increase, the Fed raised rates 75 basis points and mortgage rates went down. And that's because market rates, which drive mortgage rates - they have expectations in terms of what the Fed is going to do at each meeting. And so going into the last meeting there's a perfect example. Everyone knew the Fed was going to increase interest rates by 75 basis points but there were actually some people out there who were saying you know what I think the Fed is going to be more aggressive and they're going to increase interest rates by a full percentage point 100 basis points. So when they increased interest rates by only 75 basis points that was actually below the average expectation and so market rates and therefore mortgage rates came down. And if you take a step back you can see here the Fed rate of the mortgage rates increased significantly. Let's just call this 2% when the Fed barely moved because everyone knew that the Fed was going to start doing this. So I just again can't stress this enough, do not buy an apartment because everyone tells you you have to buy now because mortgage rates are going to go up. Nobody knows if mortgage rates are going to go up so this is obviously pretty complicated. We have a blog post that goes into a little bit more detail. I'll link to that in the description. I'm also happy to talk to you one-on-one. You can email me at james@yoreevo.com. We can also slice and dice this data to dive right into exactly what you're looking for. We're happy to talk to you about the market. Talk to you about your search. Help you buy a place, of course. Get you a commission rebate for up to 2% of the purchase price. Remember to subscribe to the channel. You'll get this about a day before it goes out to the mailing list and you can reach any of us at info@yoreevo.com and we are happy to help. So thanks for watching and we will see you next month, bye.